Water Polo Math

For an water polo officiating class we were asked, "which is more damaging, a counter or an exclusion?" Here is the analysis:

Given:
A good team scores on 15% of normal possessions, 50% of counters, and 50% exclusions. (Note: for normal possessions, I am averaging the 6 goals of 30 possessions with the "rarely better than 10%).

Find - which is more damaging:
A contra at the start of possession would be worth (+0.50 goals) to the offended team and the offending team loses (-0.15 goals). The offended team gains (+0.35 goals) per possession. A contra at the end of the possession would be worth nothing since the shot clock is expiring anyway. On average a contra is worth (0.35+0)/2 = 0.175 goals to the offended team.

An ejection at the beginning of the possession would be worth ((exclusion-normal)+0.50-0.15 = 0.35 goals) and the offending team loses nothing. An ejection at the end of the possession, the offending team loses a possession (-0.15) and the offended team gains a possession (+0.50 goals). This gives a 0.65 goal advantage to the offended team. On average, then, the ejection is worth (0.65 + 0.35)/2 = 0.5 goals to the offended team.

Results:
Therefore, an exclusion is 2.85 time more damaging than a counter. Q.E.D.

Hack Me

How are your passwords? For the one's that count, I like to learn a new word in the dictionary, maybe even one in a foreign language.

To make sure your password isn't something too easy, check it against the NYTimes or common iPhone combinations.

Moving

Thinking about robotics, won't it be cool here in 10 years when you pick up your Uhaul with an exoskeleton. How cool would it be to lift and move the sofa, or entertainment center by yourself. Talk about manly. You could also spin it as do-it-yourself for women.

Coca-Cola 600

After all the excitement of the Indy 500. I was suprised to see another jaw-dropping finish in the Coca-Cola 600. I caught the last 30 laps of this race. FYI - each lap takes about 30 seconds.


First, I want to give a hats off to Denny Hamlin and his team for successfully changing the carburetor and finishing tenth.


This race was also very exciting down to the end. Everyone got gas with 60 laps to go, which is too far too make it. As they neared the end, running under green, a real question of who would have the fuel to finish. With a caution at 4 laps to go, the engineers scratched their heads on what to do. Dale Earnhardt Jr., driving the National Guard car, had done every thing he could to save fuel. He patiently raced behind the UPS car - drafting. During the caution laps, a team mate came up behind him and pushed as he had his car off.

As with the Indy 500, it was not to be for the National Guard team. On the last turn, Dale Earnhardt Jr., ran out of gas. Even though they had built up to it for the previous 30 laps, it was still surprising to see it actually happen. What a surprising day.

Indy 500

I managed to catch the last 20 laps of the Indy 500. I always think this is the best part of the race. The rest of the race is for wearing out the cars and drivers.

Danick Patrick had just taken the lead for the first time since 2005 (the last time I think I have watched any of the race). Half way to the finish, she just got passed - not enough fuel to finish at the leader's pace. Bertrand Baguette, who passed her, ultimately ran out of fuel with two laps to go. JR Hildebrand, a rookie took the lead, with Dan Weldon a little over a second behind. Going into the last corner, passing slower traffic, slid out on the debris and crashed into the wall. I was shocked, telling him to gun it. He regained control of his car and on three wheels was passed just before the yellow caution, finishing the race in second place. You can see the light change from green to yellow in this video.

Too bad the National Guard car wasn't able to take the win for Memorial Day weekend.

Thank an Engineer

I have never thought of Civil Engineers as bad guys. I have found that most of them are very agreeable. Although it comes as no surprise that not everyone thinks the same as me, after all I am an engineer, it is interesting that engineers are trying to boost their public image.

Work for the Dead

Have you ever thought about how much work will need to be done to redeem the dead? Being an engineer, I had to crunch the numbers.

Assumptions:

1. There are 7 billion people on the earth now

2. About 7 billion people have lived on the earth before now.

3. There are 13.5 million members.

4. Half of whom are active and able to go to the temple.

5. Of those member aforementioned, 2/3 of which are temple age.

6. Work will not be repeated for the dead.

7. Excluding all who are born during this time.

8. Including all who are currently alive.

9. Exclude any time for genealogy and name preparation.

Those members need to go twice a week and complete all the ordinances for 30 years to get the work done! Considering I don't think that many of my assumptions are accurate, there is likely much more work that needs to be done.